Tensions to have limited impact on food security
The escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine will have a limited impact on China's grain market and food security, although it may affect global food supplies and push prices higher, agricultural experts said on Feb.25.
They made the remarks as the tensions between the two major grain producers caused concerns over global grain market stability.
"The geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine will not cause issues such as major price fluctuations and supply shortage in China's grain and foodstuff market in the coming months," said Ding Lixin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Beijing.
"China's food security is firmly supported by the sufficient supplies of staple grains, ensured by 1.8 billion mu (120 million hectares) of arable land, new farming technologies and practical grain import policies," he added.
Russia and Ukraine jointly account for around 29 percent of global wheat exports, 19 percent of world corn supplies and 80 percent of global sunflower oil exports, industry estimates showed.
Official Chinese Customs data said China imported 8.24 million tons of corn from Ukraine in 2021, which is mainly used for animal feed, accounting for about 30 percent of the nation's total corn imports.
China also imported about 3.21 million tons of Ukrainian barley, which made up 26 percent of its total barley imports. The country has recently approved wheat imports from all regions of Russia.
Zheng Lei, chief economist at Glory Sun Financial Group, said the situation will have a limited impact on China's currently stable grain supply, although Ukraine is an important exporter of corn and barley to China.
Li Xingbiao, an analyst at Shenzhen-based CITIC Futures Co Ltd, said even though Ukraine is a major barley supplier to China, the export shipment period of Ukrainian barley is in the third quarter of the year, and that has further cut the short-term impact of price fluctuations on China.
Analysts stressed grain security is always high on China's national agenda as the country is constantly stepping up efforts to ensure improvements in grain supply and in reducing the demand for imports.
The "No 1 central document" unveiled on Tuesday, directing work on agriculture and rural areas for 2022, has again stressed a firm hold on the bottom line of guaranteeing China's grain security, and called for efforts to stabilize and increase agricultural production.
However, Li with CITIC Futures pointed out that since a large proportion of grain and foodstuff exports from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other countries need to go through ports in the Black Sea region, any military action or economic sanctions taken by various parties may lead to operational difficulties in ports within the region.
"It may push up commodity prices in the short term, especially in the face of soaring global food prices, which will further fuel food inflation around the world," he said, adding it will generate some pressure in terms of transportation and prices on China's imports of two major agricultural products of sunflower seed oil and corn from Ukraine this year.
Zheng of Glory Sun Financial Group said China has ample room to increase grain production and self-supply capability, and efforts available include protecting and expanding grain planting areas, adopting new technologies for higher yields and increasing output, and raising people's awareness not to waste food.
The country could also strengthen trade and cooperation with major grain-exporting countries in the world, invest more in research and development of seed products and promote the development of the domestic seed industry, as well as improve utilization of genetic-modification technologies in the agricultural sector, he added.
Contact the writers at liuzhihua@chinadaily.com.cn
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